College Football Underdogs: Which Teams and Conferences Outperform?

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The Virginia Tech football team will begin its season on Sunday when the Hokies face the South Carolina Gamecocks in Atlanta (3 p.m., ESPN) for a neutral-site game.

Oddsmakers at Caesars Virginia Sportsbook have set the Hokies as a 7.5-point underdog. However, as our research discovered, the Hokies often thrive when they’re not considered the favorite.

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Which Power 4 Teams Outperform as Underdogs?

While some analysts believe the Hokies are the most underrated team in the ACC this season, they are not expected to finish as a top team in the conference. BetVirginia.com, as part of our Virginia sports betting analysis, was curious to see how underdog college football teams perform. Using TeamRankings.com data from every season since 2003, we found out how often teams and conferences win as underdogs and how often they cover as underdogs.

First, the teams that won straight up most often when they were underdogs:

Rank

Team

Win % As Underdogs

1

Georgia Bulldogs

43.2%

2

Utah Utes

43.0%

3

Oregon Ducks

41.5%

4

Ohio State Buckeyes

40.9%

5

Miami Hurricanes

40.6%

T6

LSU Tigers

40.2%

T6

Clemson Tigers

40.2%

8

Virginia Tech Hokies

39.4%

9

BYU Cougars

38.3%

10

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

38.0%

As you can see, the Hokies aren’t the only ACC team on the chart. In fact, among the Power 4 Conferences, the ACC in general outperforms the other three outright. Will this Virginia college football betting trend continue in the 2025 season?

Which Power 4 Conference Outperforms as Underdogs?

Rank

Conference

Win % As Underdogs

1

ACC

30.4%

T2

Big Ten

29.2%

T2

SEC

29.2%

4

Big 12

28.9%

Most consider the Hokies to be an underdog this season. The Hokies return just five starters from last year’s 6-7 squad that lost to Minnesota in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. At bet365 Virginia Sportsbook, the Hokies have odds of +4000 to claim the ninth conference title (that includes their time in the Big East and Southern conferences) in school history.

The ACC media picked Virginia Tech to finish 11th in the conference this season. However, one media member – out of the 183 who voted – predicted the Hokies to win it.

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Which Team Covers the Most as Underdogs?

Rank

Team

Cover %

1

Utah Utes

66.0%

2

Clemson Tigers

60.6%

3

Kansas State Wildcats

59.7%

4

Alabama Crimson Tide

58.3%

T5

Ohio State Buckeyes

58.1%

T5

Georgia Bulldogs

58.1%

7

Northwestern Wildcats

57.0%

8

Virginia Tech Hokies

56.5%

T9

Miami Hurricanes

56.3%

T9

BYU Cougars

56.3%

If you really want underdog odds, you might want to consider the Hokies winning their first national title. At Fanatics VA Sportsbook, coach Brent Pry’s team has odds of +80000, or 800-1, to not only make the College Football Playoff but win the whole thing.

Which Conference Covers the Most as Underdogs?

Rank

Conference

Cover %

1

ACC

52.6%

2

Big 12

52.1%

3

SEC

51.2%

4

Big Ten

50.2%

BetVirgina.com is your source for the Hokies analysis during the upcoming college football season. In addition, we provide up-to-date reviews on the sportsbooks licensed in the commonwealth as well as the best Virginia sportsbook promo codes available.

USA Today photo by Eric Canha

Author

Steve Bittenbender

Steve is an accomplished, award-winning reporter with more than 20 years of experience covering gaming, sports, politics and business. He has written for the Associated Press, Reuters, The Louisville Courier Journal, The Center Square and numerous other publications. Based in Louisville, Ky., Steve has covered the expansion of sports betting in the U.S. and other gaming matters.

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