College Football Hot Seat: Odds For Next Head Coach Fired

Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

  • 👀Coaching turnover comes earlier and earlier each college football season. Who is on the hot seat entering the 2024-25 year?
  • 📈Below, a team of college football experts reveal our exclusive odds to be the first head coach fired this season.
  • 🏈Arkansas coach Sam Pittman is the favorite to receive his walking papers, followed by a few other familiar faces.

Each year, a handful of head coaches across the college football landscape get the golden parachute treatment, with athletic directors opting to pay out millions to those that can’t win enough games and start anew.  

In the Old Dominion, there are several coaches across Virginia sports betting that could find themselves out of a job by season’s end, from UVA’s Tony Elliott to Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry and on down to the non-Power Four level to places like Old Dominion, where head coach Ricky Rahne has gone 15-23 over the last three years.

Of the many coaches in the country, it seems like Elliott’s odds of being fired are better than the others, thanks to the former Clemson Tigers coordinator going 6-16 in two seasons in Charlottesville.  

Sadly, Elliott’s tenure at UVA has been sidetracked a bit by the shooting that killed three football players and injured two others in 2022, which ultimately led to the cancellation of the 2022 season after 10 games and has sent shockwaves through the community ever since.  

With all that in mind, broke down the odds on which CFB coaches are the most likely to be fired this season, with Elliott being the only coach from Virginia to make the list right now.

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Next CFB Coach Fired Odds




Percent Chance 

Sam Pittman 




Dave Aranda 




Clark Lea 




Billy Napier 




Mike Locksley 




Tony Elliott 




Mario Cristobal 

Miami (FL) 



The Field 



*Only includes the Power 4 conferences.

Odds provided by and not available at Virginia betting apps.

Who Will Be Fired Next?

Right now, the leading candidates in CFB to be canned are longstanding leaders like Sam Pittman, who has gone 23-25 at Arkansas but saw his program backslide their way from two winning seasons in 2021 and 2022 to a 4-8 clunker in 2023.  

Pittman is our top candidate to be canned, at +450, beating out a fellow backslider in Baylor’s Dave Aranda, who went from the penthouse of going 12-2 in 2021 to a 6-7 season in 2022 and a disastrous 3-9 campaign last season that saw the Bears finish 2-7 in Big 12 play.  

Aranda ranks second on our firing list at +500, while Clark Lea of Vanderbilt and Billy Napier of Florida are tied for third at +700 apiece and Maryland’s Mike Locksley is the next closest at +900.  

Elliott is one of two dark horse candidates to be fired this season, coming in at +1250 and ranking alongside Mario Cristobal of Miami (FL) to round out our CFB firing candidates list, with the field listed at +600 to kick off the year in amateur football.  

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Christopher Boan

Christopher Boan has been covering sports and sports betting for more than seven years, including stops at, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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