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College Football Hot Seat: Odds For Next Head Coach Fired
- 👀Coaching turnover comes earlier and earlier each college football season. Who is on the hot seat already?
- 📈Below, a team of college football experts reveal our exclusive odds to be the next head coach fired this season.
- 🏈Baylor coach Dave Aranda is still the favorite to receive his walking papers, followed by a few other familiar faces.
We’re halfway through the 2024 college football season at Virginia sportsbooks, which means that now is the time where school officials begin taking stock of their programs to see whether major changes are necessary or not.
Across the modern “Power Four,” such actions happen quicker and quicker each fall, with this year’s cast of possible castoffs including former ballyhooed head coaches like Dave Aranda of Baylor, Billy Napier of Florida and Arkansas’ Sam Pittman — all of whom have lost that loving feeling of late after solid starts to their head coaching careers.
Now, any of those three (or another coach entirely) could find themselves out of work first this football season, as boosters and athletic directors look to jump the line and land the best coach possible ahead of their Power Four peers.
With all that in mind, BetVirginia.com updated our latest batch of head coach firing odds in 2024. See our Virginia college football betting guide for more info.
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Next CFB Coach Fired Odds in 2024
Coach | Team | Odds | Percent Chance |
Dave Aranda | Baylor | +250 | 28.6% |
Billy Napier | Florida | +450 | 18.2% |
Sam Pittman | Arkansas | +500 | 16.7% |
Mike Norvell | Florida State | +1100 | 8.3% |
Scott Satterfield | Cincinnati | +1100 | 8.3% |
Hugh Freeze | Auburn | +1500 | 6.3% |
Shane Beamer | South Carolina | +1500 | 6.3% |
The Field | - | +900 | 10.0% |
*Only includes the Power 4 conferences.
Odds provided by BetVirginia.com and not available at Virginia betting apps.
Who Will Get Fired First?
It looks like Aranda is the odd man out at the moment, with the fifth year head coach starting his hot seat season with a 2-4 clunker of a start and looking likely to finish with a losing record for a third year in a row. That’s why we list Aranda atop our CFB hot seat ranking in Week 7, as Baylor plays six straight unranked teams to close out the year, which means that it’s now or never for the veteran college coach to prove to school administrators that he’s the right man for the job.
That task begins in earnest after the team’s bye week, when the Bears head to Lubbock to play Texas Tech at 3 p.m. Central time on Oct. 19 in what might serve as a “win or go home” game for Aranda’s tenure with the school.
Other leading candidates to be canned first include Napier at +450 and Pittman at +500, though both picked up much needed victories last weekend against UCF and Tennessee, perhaps cooling the temperature on the seats for the moment.
What won’t help Napier’s cause in all likelihood is UF’s brutal schedule, with five ranked opponents in the next six weeks, with contests against the eighth ranked Volunteers (on Saturday in Knoxville), fifth ranked Georgia Bulldogs (in Jacksonville on Nov. 2), top ranked Texas (in Austin on Nov. 9), 13th ranked LSU (at home on Nov. 16) and ninth ranked Ole Miss (at home on Nov. 23) on the horizon.
Pittman, on the other hand, enters the Razorbacks’ bye week with a 4-2 record overall and a 2-1 SEC mark ahead of an Oct. 19 home showdown against the 19th ranked Bayou Bengals before heading to Starkville to play Mississippi State the following weekend.
From there, Arkansas has its own stretch of brutality to tend with, with games against the Rebels and Longhorns in successive weeks at home before closing out the year with another home game against Louisiana Tech on Nov. 23 and a road clash with 21st ranked Missouri on Nov. 30.
Outside of those three contenders, keep an eye on another Sunshine State head coach, in FSU’s Mike Norvell, as a top choice to be fired in 2024, with the former Memphis head coach listed at +1100, alongside Scott Satterfield of Cincinnati and ahead of Auburn’s Hugh Freeze and South Carolina’s Shane Beamer, who are both listed at +1500.
Quite simply, when it comes to getting fired in college football, it really just means more in the Southeastern Conference, with no shortage of candidates to get the pink slip in the country’ eminent collective of football power programs.
USA Today by Matt Pendleton.
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