Washington Commanders Playoff Chances June 2023: Tracking the Commanders Playoff Picture

By Eric Pauly
Fact Checked by Wes Roesch
Commanders running back runs with ball

Key Takeaways:

  • The Commanders have a 25% chance to make the playoffs which is among the lowest in the NFC.
  • The Commanders’ Super Bowl 58 odds opened at +6500, some of the longest odds of all 32 teams.
  • Based on the latest odds, the Commanders have a 1.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl in 2024.

After an abysmal 1-4 start to the 2022 season, the Commanders won six of their next seven games and controlled their own postseason destiny. Unfortunately for Commanders fans, Washington tied against the Giants and lost three straight games to eradicate their playoff hopes. They are now pivoting to a quarterback with one career NFL start in Sam Howell.

Oddsmakers are not expecting much improvement from this Commanders team heading into the 2023 season as they have just a 25% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl. As the offseason continues and the regular season begins, I will be tracking the Commanders playoff chances daily, as well as breaking down the Commanders' odds of winning the NFC and the Super Bowl.

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What are the Commanders Playoff Chances?

After losing their two quarterbacks, oddsmakers are giving Washington just a 25% chance to make the playoffs. The table below lists the Commanders’ odds of making the postseason, as well as other important odds surrounding the team to note.

Commanders Playoff Chances25% Chance
Commanders Miss Playoffs75% Chance
👑 Commanders Win Super Bowl1.5% Chance
🏆 Commanders Win NFC2.4% Chance
🔥 Commanders Win NFC East8.3% Chance
🗽 New York Times Postseason SimulatorNot Available Yet
🏈 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)-1.4
Data Verified by ExpertJune 2, 2023

The odds associated with a bet can be converted into an implied probability, and that is what I did to calculate the Commanders playoff picture. The Commanders are +300 to make the playoffs, which converts to a 25% implied probability of Washington making the postseason.

Just like there are odds for the Commanders to make the playoffs, there are odds for Washington to miss the playoffs. By converting the odds to an implied probability, as well as factoring in the sportsbook’s hold percentage, Washington has a 75% chance of missing the postseason. Their probability of winning the Super Bowl is a measly 1.5% chance, they have just a 2.4% chance of winning the NFC, and their probability of winning the NFC East is just an 8.3% chance.

In order to paint the full picture, we are providing relevant data from the New York Times and ESPN’s Football Power Index. The inclusion of these data sources is important because they offer a more intricate way to power rate teams by measuring the strength of schedule, expected points margins, and home-field advantage. I will update the chart above as these metrics change.

Washington Commanders Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates June 2023

In order to stay up to date with what is going on with the Washington Commanders, I am tracking breaking news and notes surrounding the Commanders that impact their playoff chances.

  • 📆 April 27: Washington selected DB Emmanuel Forbes in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft to bolster their aging cornerback room.
  • 📆 April 26: Washington declined 2020 first-rounder Chase Young’s fifth-year option. 
  • 📆 March 16: Washington signed veteran QB Jacoby Brissett to a one-year, $8 million contract to be their backup QB.
  • 📆 March 16: Washington signed offensive linemen Nick Gates, Tyler Larsen, and Andrew Wylie to bolster their offensive line, which was one of the worst in the NFL in 2022.
  • 📆 March 13: Washington signed Pro Bowl DT Daron Payne to a four-year, $90 million contract extension.
  • 📆 February 28: The Commanders promoted quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese to senior offensive advisor and assistant defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer to defensive backs coach.
  • 📆 February 17: Washington named two-time Super Bowl champion Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator and assistant head coach.

Bookmark this page and check back for all the key developments and breaking news impacting the Commanders’ chances to make the playoffs.

Where Can I Bet on the Commanders to Make the Playoffs?

At the moment, you can bet on the Commanders to make the playoffs at all major sportsbooks in Virginia and Maryland. Keep in mind these odds are dynamic, and they can change in an instant. Most major sportsbooks in the US, like DraftKings or Caesars, offer this market. In order to place a wager on the Commanders to make the playoffs, you must be 21 or older and in a state that has legal sports betting through licensed operators.

Looking Ahead: Commanders Playoff Picture

While oddsmakers and pundits are low on the Commanders' postseason chances, they may be underrating this team. The Commanders sported a top-10 defense in the NFL last season by many metrics, and this unit is being kept mostly intact through the free agency period.

The biggest knock on the Commanders is their inability to figure out QB and their poor offensive line. Sophomore QB Sam Howell, who has made just one NFL start, is expected to be under center for Washington in Week 1. Jacoby Brissett, the proven journeyman, is expected to be Washington’s QB2.

If Eric Bieniemy, the Commanders' new OC, can maximize Howell’s skillset and improve the offensive line play, the sky is the limit for Washington. The team's skill players are legit, defense is one of the best in football, and special teams grade well year in and year out.

Do the Commanders Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

It is impossible to rule out any team’s possibility of making the postseason before the season has begun. Over the past decade, on average, five teams that did not make the postseason in the prior year make the playoffs the season after. Washington did not make the postseason last year, so they certainly fit that bill.

With that being said, many pundits and oddsmakers are low on Washington’s chances to make the playoffs or win the NFC East or the Super Bowl in 2024. The NFC East has quickly turned into one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, and on paper, the Commanders have the worst roster. However, Washington was +1000 to win the NFC East in 2020, and they did, so anything is possible.

Are the Commanders Out of Playoffs?

The 2023 season has not begun, so every team is 0-0 and has a shot to make the postseason. According to oddsmakers at multiple sportsbooks, the Commanders are a longshot to make the playoffs, win the NFC East or make the Super Bowl in 2024.

If Howell shows he can lead this offense, and Washington’s offensive line plays better, the Commanders could shock the NFL next season. If Howell is mediocre, Washington may be looking at a top-5 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Washington Commanders Playoffs FAQs


Eric Pauly focuses his time on reviewing the top sportsbooks and casinos in the world to ensure gamers and bettors know exactly what they are getting when they sign-up to a new site or download a new betting app. Eric also loves sports betting and considers himself an avid sports bettor, despite handicapping not being his core focus.

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