Washington Commanders Playoff Chances: Tracking the Commanders Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Blake Weishaar
Commanders running back runs with ball

Key Takeaways:

  • The Washington Commanders have officially been eliminated from the playoff picture.
  • The Commanders have a 0% chance of winning the NFC East as they have been eliminated from postseason connection.
  • The Commanders' Super Bowl XLVIII odds are 0% since Washington has been eliminated from the postseason.
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The Commanders' playoff chances are officially 0% with an "E" next to their name on the standings. The "E," of course, stands for eliminated. Washington has been mathematically eliminated, and they will enter the offseason once the final whistle blows to end their Week 18 game against the Cowboys.

Still, I will be updating the Commanders' playoff chances provided by Virginia sportsbooks throughout the season in case Washington is able to make a last-minute turnaround. This turnaround would need to happen ASAP, and even that may not be enough. Washington has a bye this week, so they can't help themselves with a win.

What are the Commanders Playoff Chances?

The Commanders have a 0% chance of making the playoffs. The Commanders lost a few close games this season that, if they won, could have changed their fortune, but they lost, and now their offseason begins soon.

And make sure to keep track of some of the top Virginia sports betting promos which could improve your earnings if you choose to bet on the Commanders to make the playoffs. 

⭐ Commanders Playoff ChancesN/A
πŸ‘‘ Commanders Win Super BowlN/A
πŸ† Commanders Win NFCN/A
πŸ”₯ Commanders Win NFC EastN/A
🏈 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)-5.7 FPI (30th)
βœ… Last Verified by ExpertFebruary 27, 2024

Playoff chances can be calculated by converting the odds offered by online Virginia sportsbook apps to an implied probability. Washington was most recently +4000 to make the playoffs, so by using an implied probability calculator, you can surmise that Washington has a 2.4% chance of securing a playoff spot this season. However, now the odds are not offered since there is a 0% chance Washington gets in.

To add more context surrounding the Commanders and their playoff chances, I am also including the New York Times Postseason Simulator and ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Utilizing these resources from two top media sources will help paint a clear picture of how good (or bad) Washington is this season. Washington finished 21st in FPI last season. After falling to last place in the NFC East, the New York Times gives Washington a 0% chance of making the playoffs, and Washington has a -5.7 FPI, which is 30th in the NFL. Washington has been officially eliminated.

Washington Commanders Week-by-Week Playoff Chances

All season long, I will be analyzing how Washington's playoff chances are adjusted compared to how the Commanders perform on the gridiron. Odds are dynamic, and a variety of factors can lead to massive shifts in these odds very quickly.

  • Week 1: +290
  • Week 2: +290
  • Week 3: +230
  • Week 4: +300
  • Week 5: +285
  • Week 6: +600
  • Week 7: +320
  • Week 8: +800
  • Week 9: +1000
  • Week 10: +800
  • Week 11: +1000
  • Week 12: +4000
  • Week 13: N/A
  • Week 14: N/A
  • Week 15: N/A
  • Week 16: N/A
  • Week 17: N/A

As each week concludes, the lookahead lines on the spreads and moneylines shift, sometimes drastically. This signifies if the market is upgrading or downgrading a team based on performance or injury positives or concerns.

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Washington Commanders Schedule and Betting Lines

Washington travels to Los Angeles to play the rams this week.

πŸ“† Week 1 vs. Arizona CardinalsWin, 20-16
πŸ“† Week 2 at Denver BroncosWin, 35-33
πŸ“† Week 3 vs. Buffalo BillsLoss, 37-3
πŸ“† Week 4 at Philadelphia EaglesLoss, 34-31
πŸ“† Week 5 vs. Chicago BearsLoss, 40-20
πŸ“† Week 6 at Atlanta FalconsWin, 24-16
πŸ“† Week 7 at New York GiantsLoss, 14-7
πŸ“† Week 8 vs. Philadelphia EaglesLoss, 38-31
πŸ“† Week 9 at New England PatriotsWin, 20-17
πŸ“† Week 10BYE WEEK
πŸ“† Week 11 at Seattle SeahawksLoss, 29-26
πŸ“† Week 12 vs New York GiantsLoss, 31-19
πŸ“† Week 13 at Dallas CowboysLoss, 45-10
πŸ“† Week 14 vs. Miami DolphinsLoss, 45-15
πŸ“† Week 15 at Los Angeles RamsLoss, 28-20
πŸ“† Week 16 at New York JetsLoss, 30-28
πŸ“† Week 17 vs. San Francisco 49ersLoss, 27-10
πŸ“† Week 18 vs. Dallas CowboysCommanders +13, ML +640
βœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertFebruary 27, 2024

Washington finished in last place in the NFC East in 2022, so Washington will get a last-place schedule this season. However, since the NFC East takes on the AFC East, the NFC West, and of course, its own division, Washington has a tough schedule this season. The Commanders will have ten games against opponents who made the playoffs last season. Based on power ratings and other factors, the Commanders face arguably one of the hardest schedules in the NFL next season.

Washington Commanders Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates February 2024

In order to stay up to date with what is going on with the Washington Commanders playoff picture, I am tracking breaking news and notes surrounding the Commanders that impact their playoff chances. Washington fell to 4-9 after their loss against the Dolphins.

  • πŸ“† December 24: The Commanders lose another one, this time against the Jets.
  • πŸ“† December 17: The Commanders playoff chances are now zero after Washington lost to the Rams.
  • πŸ“† December 11: Washington had a bye week, but teams they needed to lose on Sunday mostly won.
  • πŸ“† December 3: Washington allowed 45 points in their home loss to the Dolphins on Sunday.
  • πŸ“† November 24: Washington fired Defensive Coordinator Jack Del Rio. Head Coach Ron Rivera will take over defensive play-calling duties.
  • πŸ“† November 23: Washington was destroyed on Thanksgiving 45-10 in Dallas
  • πŸ“† November 19: Washington fell at home as 7.5-point favorites to the New York Giants.
  • πŸ“† November 12: Washington lost to NFC foe Seattle in an early must-win game.
  • πŸ“† November 5: Washington won outright as three-point road underdogs to improve to 4-5.
  • πŸ“† October 31: Washington traded DEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young who are two of their best players on the team.
  • πŸ“† October 30: Washington lost to their divisional rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles, for the 2nd time this season.
  • πŸ“† October 22: Washington lost to their divisional rivals 14-7 as a 3-point favorite.
  • πŸ“† October 15: Washington went into Atlanta and beat the Falcons to improve to 3-3 despite being outgained by over 200 yards in the game.
  • πŸ“† October 6: Washington fell to the Bears at home and dropped to 2-3 on the season, and their playoff odds tanked after the performance.
  • πŸ“† October 1: Washington lost in overtime 34-31 at Philadelphia to fall to 2-2. Their odds of making the playoffs actually increased after this loss.
  • πŸ“† September 24: Washington gets blown out at home to the Buffalo Bills, and their odds of making the playoffs and winning the NFC both decreased.
  • πŸ“† September 17: Washington improves to 2-0 with a come-from-behind victory against the Broncos in Denver.
  • πŸ“† September 10: Washington won their first game of the season 20-16 against the Arizona Cardinals.
  • πŸ“† August 21: Washington won their second preseason game of the 2023 season, and their win against the Ravens ends their 24-0 preseason record.
  • πŸ“† August 11: Washington won their first preseason game of the 2023 season, defeating the Ravens 29-28 on Monday Night Football.
  • πŸ“† July 20: NFL owners approved the sale of the Commanders to a group led by Josh Harris.
  • πŸ“† April 27: Washington selected DB Emmanuel Forbes in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft to bolster their aging cornerback room.
  • πŸ“† April 26: Washington declined 2020 first-rounder Chase Young’s fifth-year option. 
  • πŸ“† March 16: Washington signed veteran QB Jacoby Brissett to a one-year, $8 million contract to be their backup QB.
  • πŸ“† March 16: Washington signed offensive linemen Nick Gates, Tyler Larsen, and Andrew Wylie to bolster their offensive line, which was one of the worst in the NFL in 2022.
  • πŸ“† March 13: Washington signed Pro Bowl DT Daron Payne to a four-year, $90 million contract extension.
  • πŸ“† February 28: The Commanders promoted quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese to senior offensive advisor and assistant defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer to defensive backs coach.
  • πŸ“† February 17: Washington named two-time Super Bowl champion Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator and assistant head coach.

Bookmark this page and check back for all the key developments and breaking news impacting the Commanders’ chances to make the playoffs.

Key Contributors Toward Commanders Playoff Chances

It would be nice if any Commander could help Washington's playoff chances, but unfortunately, it is too late. Sam Howell has had some great moments and some terrible ones. Washington's weapons, mainly Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin, and Jahan Dotson, have all had mediocre to lackluster seasons. No Commander offensive player performed well enough to push this team over the top, and it is doubtful this team will have any Pro-Bowlers.

Washington traded arguably their two best defenders before the trade deadline, and this defense has gone from bad to terrible. Jon Allen and Daron Payne have both had down seasons, and Washington's secondary is the worst in football.

Not only is Washington inferior on the talent front, but they also have one of the worst coaching staffs in the league. Major changes are expected in Washington at the conclusion of this season. In all honesty, it is surprising Washington is waiting until the end of the season to fire head coach Ron Rivera.

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Where Can I Bet on the Commanders to Make the Playoffs?

At the moment, you can bet on the Commanders to make the playoffs at all major sportsbooks in Virginia and Maryland. Keep in mind these odds are dynamic, and they can change in an instant. Most major sportsbooks in the US, like BetMGM Virginia, DraftKings Virginia or Caesars Sportsbook Virginia, offer this market. In order to place a wager on the Commanders to make the playoffs, you must be 21 or older and in a state that has legal sports betting through licensed operators.

Looking Ahead: Commanders Playoff Picture

The Commanders made it clear that the playoffs are not a priority this season, and odds are they will be playing golf during the NFL playoffs. Their season is effectively over.

At this point, Washington just hopes to see progression. If Sam Howell can improve, that is a win. The defense has been bad all season, so that is probably a lost cause, but good quarterback play keeps you in games and gives your franchise hope.

The defense is abysmal, and it will take more than a slight coaching change to see any progress from this unit. There are a few reasons why Washington was not competitive for most of this season, but the defense going from a top-10 unit in 2022 to a bottom-3 unit in 2023 speaks for itself.

Do the Commanders Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

No, the Washington Commanders have been officially eliminated from the playoff picture.

Many pundits and oddsmakers are low on Washington’s chances, especially after they sold at the deadline and now they are officially out of contention.

Are the Commanders Out of Playoffs?

Yes, the Commanders are out of the playoffs. Washington has been mathematically eliminated and their season is over once Week 18 concludes.

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Where Do the Washington Commanders Rank in the NFC East?

The Commanders have not moved in the NFC East.

  1. Dallas Cowboys 11-5
  2. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
  3. New York Giants 5-11
  4. Washington Commanders 4-12

The Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants all made the playoffs last season.

Where Do the Washington Commanders Rank in the NFC Playoff Standings?

Washington has been eliminated from playoff contention. They currently hold the fourth pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

Washington last made the playoffs in 2020. They won the NFC East that year.

NFC Championship Odds
Best Odds
% Chance
49ers
30.30%
--
--
Lions
14.29%
--
--
Cowboys
11.76%
--
--
Eagles
11.11%
--
--
Packers
8.33%
--
--
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Where Do the Commanders Rank in the NFC Wild Card Race?

Washington cannot make the playoffs as a Wild Card or at all.

Can the Commanders Get the No. 1 Seed?

No, Washington cannot get the one seed. Washington cannot get any seed. The Commanders are out of the race. The 49ers, Lions, Eagles, and Cowboys are fighting for the one seed, with the 49ers as the favorites to secure it.

Who to Root for if You're a Washington Commanders Fan

The main rivals for Washington are the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys, making it beneficial for Washington supporters to cheer for any team facing these three competitors. Even though Washington has been eliminated, Washington Commanders fans can still root against these teams.

Apart from their divisional adversaries, Washington fans should hope for the struggles of the Falcons, Saints, Seahawks, Vikings, Packers, and Lions. These teams are all alive while Washington is dead, but Commanders cans can still pray on their downfall.

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Washington Commanders Postseason Outlook and Predictions

Washington lost on Sunday, and the Commanders playoff chances are 0%. We would say it was a great season, but it was not even close.

Sam Howell made mistakes that he cannot make if Washington wants to be a serious playoff contender, and while he's had his moments, he is certainly not the answer. He makes throws that other QBs cannot make, but he is far from a finished product. Any progression from Howell is as good as a win for Washington at this point, but the odds are he is a career backup.

Washington's defense is officially terrible. It's been terrible all season long, but nothing can save it, not even firing Jack Del Rio. Ron Rivera will not do much better as a play-caller. He allowed 45 points in his play-calling debut with no signs of improvement.

Washington Commanders Playoffs FAQs

Author

Eric Pauly focuses his time on reviewing the top sportsbooks and casinos in the world to ensure gamers and bettors know exactly what they are getting when they sign-up to a new site or download a new betting app. Eric also loves sports betting and considers himself an avid sports bettor, despite handicapping not being his core focus.

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